SMU SOE Seminar Series (May 14, 2025): Godfather Politicians and Organized Violence

TOPIC:

ABSTRACT

We analyze the ironic breakdown of social order when good politicians replace flawed ones. A corrupt politician (“Godfather”) may arbitrate otherwise violent conflicts peacefully for extralegal personal benefits, while eradicating such politicians leads to social unrest. Utilizing a unique natural experiment that systematically removed corrupt officials, a difference-in-differences test shows that organized violence surged by an additional 15 percentage points in cases where local officials were found colluding with organized criminals. The violence surge was not due to their successors’ increased monitoring intensity, government failure, or gangster infightings, thus highlighting the institution design – not moral characters – that shapes politicians’ behavior.

Keywords: Organized Crime, Violence, Corruption, Politician, Godfather.

JEL: P16, D73, D74, P48.

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