SMU SOE Seminar Series (August 23, 2024): Fertility Prediction using Micro Data

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TOPIC:

FERTILITY PREDICTION USING MICRO DATA

ABSTRACT

This paper presents a novel approach to forecasting fertility patterns using micro data, focusing on individual-level observations to enhance predictions of fertility rates. Our method leverages the advantages of completed fertility rates, which provide more reliable fertility measures when birth rates differ by cohorts. Analyzing detailed birth history outcomes from Census Korea 2% data, we estimate and predict fertility outcomes, encompassing both the timing and total number of childbirths. We find that younger cohorts tend to delay childbirth compared to earlier cohorts, with educational attainment and childbirth history playing a significant role in this trend.

Keywords: Probabilistic Population Forecasting, Completed Fertility Rate, Total Fertility Rate

JEL Codes: J13

Click here to view the CV.
Click here to view the paper.

PRESENTER

Seik Kim
Korea University

RESEARCH FIELDS

Labor Economics
Demography
Empirical Microeconomics, Econometrics

DATE:

23 August 2024 (Friday)

TIME:

4pm - 5.30pm

VENUE:

Meeting Room 5.1, Level 5
School of Economics
Singapore Management University
90 Stamford Road
Singapore 178903

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