SMU SOE Seminar Series (September 25, 2025): The Economic Returns to Neonatal Vaccination: Evidence from Taiwan's Universal Hepatitis B Program

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ABSTRACT

This paper estimates the long-term economic and health benefits of Taiwan's universal hepatitis B vaccination program, launched in the mid-1980s. Using a sharp regression discontinuity design based on date-of-birth cutoffs and administrative income and health records, we show that individuals eligible for neonatal vaccination under the 1986 expansion earned 0.83--0.93% more in adulthood and had significantly fewer outpatient visits related to liver diseases. These benefits are concentrated among males and individuals from low-income families. A cost-benefit analysis suggests that the program’s lifetime productivity gains far exceed its implementation costs. Our findings highlight the substantial long-run returns to early-life health interventions in middle-income settings.

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