SMU SOE Seminar Series (May 15, 2026): Demographics and Elite Persistence: Evidence from China’s Fertility Restrictions

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ABSTRACT

We study how China’s fertility restriction campaign in the 1970s --- one of the largest demographic control efforts in history --- affected the intergenerational persistence of elites. Exploiting the staggered rollout of fertility restrictions across regions, we find that the campaign significantly reduced family size, especially among political elite households that faced stricter enforcement. This demographic shock eroded elite dynasties: Affected elite households were less likely to produce offspring who later attained elite positions, including high-level political offices. Mechanism analysis suggests that this decline cannot be explained solely by the mechanical effect of a reduced family size. Instead, it is primarily driven by human capital catch-up among non-elites, which eroded elites' relative advantage, and by the weakening of elite networks. Collectively, our findings suggest that demographic shocks can have lasting effects on the distribution of power.