SMU SOE Seminar Series (August 28, 2024): Pro Lieralism or Illiberalism? The Nature of Civic Mobilzation and Economic Growth

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ABSTRACT

This study investigates the enduring link between the nature of mobilization during democratic transitions and subsequent economic growth. Using dynamic growth regressions with fixed effects, event studies, a semiparametric model, a matching-augmented DID strategy, and instrumental variable analyses, with data from 1960 to 2020, we find that Pro-liberalism Mobilization, which respects diverse values, boosts post-transition economic growth compared to autocratic countries. In contrast, Illiberalism Mobilization, driven by autocratic tendencies, does not. This distinction leaves strong imprints not only on the formal design of political institutions but also on the prevailing norms of political behavior. It matters more for future economic growth than the violence level during the democratization process.

Keywords: Democratization, Growth, Civil Society, Nature of Mobilization, Instability, Institutions, Critical Juncture

JEL Codes: D72, D74, O43, P16, P17, P26

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