SMU SOE Seminar (Jan 18, 2017): The Transition of Welfare in Africa in the 2000s: Evidence from Synthetic Panel Data*

    Absent actual panel household survey data, we construct for the first time synthetic panel data for more than twenty countries accounting for two-thirds of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa. We employ in this process repeated cross sections that span, on average, a six-year period for each country. Our analysis suggests that all these countries as a whole have had pro-poor growth. In particular, one third of the poor population escaped poverty during the studied period, which is larger than the proportion of the population that fell into poverty in the same period. The region also saw a nine-percent reduction in poverty and a 28-percent increase in the size of the middle class. Chronic poverty, however, remains high and a considerable proportion of the population are vulnerable to falling into poverty.

Keywords: Welfare dynamics, Poverty, Vulnerability, Middle class, Pro-poor growth, Synthetic panel, Household surveys, Africa

JEL Classifications: C15, D31, I31, O10, O57

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