SMU SOE Online Seminar (Aug 18, 2022, 4.00pm-5.30pm):Path-dependent Preferences and Polarized Public Response to Pandemics

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TOPIC:

PATH-DEPENDENT PREFERENCES AND POLARIZED PUBLIC RESPONSE TO PANDEMICS

ABSTRACT People with liberal traditions exhibit polar opposite views and behavior toward COVID-19. We analyze this phenomenon by employing a dynamic game model involving stochastic transmission-intensity rates, asymptomatic infections, and heterogeneous agents making communicable-activity decisions in each period under disease uncertainty. Active agents freely choose communicable activities that increase their utility flows along with infection probabilities. Our analysis reveals the following: (1) The polarized public response to the pandemic arises when the disease-probability function is more concave than the agents' utility function for communicable activities, which suggests that polarization can be rooted in individual rationality. (2) Asymptomatic infection implies a path-dependent disease probability that declines with agents' past activities, which makes sense of a gradually relaxing lockdown policy even when the transmission intensity remains the same. (3) Monotone comparative statics results suggest that agents with lower discount factors, lower probability of being sick upon infection, or lower expectation of su¤ering upon being sick tend to choose higher equilibrium activities. (4) If the virus persists, then the only long-run equilibrium outcome without government intervention is herd immunity. Keywords: Stochastic dynamic programming; probability function of disease;asymptomatic infection; polarized public responses JEL Classification: C73; D01; D82; C25 Click here to view the paper. Click here to view the speaker's profile.		This seminar will be held virtually via Zoom. A confirmation email with the Zoom details will be sent to the registered email by 17 Aug 2022.
		PRESENTER Audrey Hu City University of Hong Kong
		RESEARCH INTERESTS Microeconomic Theory
		DATE: 18 August 2022 (Thursday)
		TIME: 4.00pm - 5.30pm

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