SMU SOE Seminar (March 27, 2023): No Help for the Heartland? The Employment and Electoral Effects of the Trump Tariffs in the United States

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ABSTRACT We study the economic and political consequences of the trade war between the United States and China at the detailed geographic level, exploiting measures of exposure to China-facing tariffs, retaliatory tariffs, and U.S. compensation programs. The trade-war has not so far provided economic help to the U.S. heartland: import tariffs on Chinese goods neither raised nor lowered U.S. employment in newly-protected sectors; Chinese retaliatory tariffs had clear negative employment impacts, primarily in agriculture; and these harms were only partly mitigated by compensatory U.S. farm subsidies. Nevertheless, consistent with expressive views of politics, the tariff war appears to have benefited the Republican party. Residents of regions more exposed to import tariffs became less likely to identify as Democrats, more likely to vote to reelect Donald Trump in 2020, and more likely to elect Republicans to Congress. Chinese retaliatory tariffs only modestly weakened that support. Click here to view the CV.
		PRESENTER David Dorn University of Zurich
		RESEARCH FIELDS Labor Economics International Trade Political Economy
		DATE: 27 March 2023 (Monday)
		TIME: 2pm - 3.30pm
		VENUE: Meeting Room 5.1, Level 5 School of Economics Singapore Management University 90 Stamford Road Singapore 178903