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TOPIC:
ELITES AND IDEOLOGY: HOW IMPERIAL CHINA WAS LOST
ABSTRACT
Despite economic progress, revolutions remain integral to human civilization and social order. In the context of the 1911 Chinese Revolution which ended the 2,000-year-long imperial rule, we find that the traditional elites – especially those who held political power as provincial assemblymen – facilitated revolutionary success to achieve independence from the Qing state; the likelihood of a prefecture achieving independence increases by 88.82% for a 1% increase in the number of traditional elites. But ideology also mattered. Those who were thoroughly exposed to revolutionary ideologies – the liberal elites – paved the way to independence by catalyzing uprisings. A 1% increase in the number of liberal elites in a prefecture will lead to an increase of uprisings by 53.34%. While revolutionary ideas predisposed radicalism on the whole, like the traditional elites, those liberal elites who were highly educated preferred a peaceful transition, suggesting that human capital can moderate the impact of ideology and contribute importantly to social stability. In contrast to received wisdom, the masses did not play as significant a role as the elites did in the 1911 Revolution, even though they were engrossed in the series of conflicts launched against the Qing beforehand.